sha256:a7c7fea4d39eb6d60198c64f6962b3687998c5b72b72f5957c229074c54df8a6
OpenChainGraph Suite · ART-657

Forecast Accuracy Scorer

Scores a batch of resolved probabilistic forecasts (a stated probability paired with the realized yes/no outcome) using two textbook proper scoring rules: the Brier score and the logarithmic score, plus a Brier Skill Score against a reference forecast you choose. Each forecast can carry an optional, informational subject-matter category label so results break out per category below, supplied by you rather than derived from any rule. Lower is better for both scores, 0 is a perfect score, and a forecaster's best strategy under both is to report their true belief, which is what makes them "proper."

Proper Scoring RulesBrier ScoreLog ScoreZero PIIClient-side only
🔒 All inputs are processed locally in your browser. No data is transmitted. Do not enter real personal data — use synthetic or anonymised inputs only.
Reliance
This tool scores the calibration of already-resolved forecasts you supply, and does not resolve markets, price contracts, assess venue compliance, or determine contract eligibility, legality, or regulatory status under any authority.
Resolved Forecasts
ProbabilityOutcomeCategory
Result
Execution Hash & Artifact
SHA-256 execution hash (JCS canonical, RFC 8785):