OpenChainGraph Suite · ART-212 · Prediction Markets
Prediction Market Arbitrage
Calculate cross-venue arbitrage: gross spread, fee-adjusted net edge, capital required, and the minimum spread needed to survive fees. A 5% gross spread on Polymarket/Kalshi yields roughly 3% net after Kalshi's parabolic taker fee.
Not financial advice. Arbitrage opportunities are transient and may disappear before execution. Verify current prices and fees with each venue. This tool does not access live prices or execute orders.
🔒 All inputs are processed locally in your browser. No data is transmitted. Do not enter real personal data — use synthetic or anonymised inputs only.
Best ask for the YES side. E.g. $0.45 per $1 contract.
Best ask for the NO side. E.g. $0.50 per $1 contract.
Copy this paragraph into Claude, OpenClaw, or any MCP-aware agent to run this exact tool, with this sample, and verify the artifact.
Run the AINumbers MCP tool `find_prediction_arbitrage`. Task: Identify cross-venue arbitrage opportunities in binary prediction markets.
Call it with arguments: {"policy_parameters":{"venue_a":"polymarket","venue_b":"kalshi","yes_price_a":0.45,"no_price_b":0.5,"payout":1,"stake_total":1000}}
Verify before trusting: call `verify_execution_hash` on mcp.ainumbers.co (https://mcp.ainumbers.co/mcp) with the parameter `claimed_hash` set to the returned `execution_hash`, passing the full artifact the run returned (the object containing `policy_parameters` + `output_payload` + `execution_hash`; equivalently `policy_parameters` + `output_payload` with `claimed_hash`), not the bare hash string, or re-run the in-page WebMCP tool `find_prediction_arbitrage`.
Return the ledger link https://ledger.ainumbers.co/ so a human can re-verify without contacting us.
PII rule: All inputs are processed locally in your browser. No data is transmitted. Do not enter real personal data — use synthetic or anonymised inputs only.
Open the tool with the sample prefilled: https://ainumbers.co/chaingraph/art-212-prediction-market-arbitrage.html#p=v1.H4sIAAAAAAAA_wFtAJL_eyJ2ZW51ZV9hIjoicG9seW1hcmtldCIsInZlbnVlX2IiOiJrYWxzaGkiLCJ5ZXNfcHJpY2VfYSI6MC40NSwibm9fcHJpY2VfYiI6MC41LCJwYXlvdXQiOjEsInN0YWtlX3RvdGFsIjoxMDAwfY3XuQltAAAA