Day 5 · Five instruments · collected 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-09

Sixteen models on five mechanically gradable instruments

The richest onboarding wave in the collection, and the first with two grading stations. Every instrument on this day is gradable without reading prose, which is what makes the per-model feed below possible.

80
files collected
16
models
5
instruments
2
grading stations
Presenter mode shows one section per screen. Arrow keys move, A toggles autoplay, Esc exits.
1
Ranking

How the field ranked on this day

Reg Z recomputation, exact of 9
Reg Z figures recomputed in scratch Python and matched exactly. Twelve of the fifteen graded models closed all nine.
chatgpt9/9gemini9/9glm 5.3 flash*9/9grok9/9kimi9/9longcat9/9meta9/9mimo9/9minara9/9qwen9/9sonnet9/9yuanbao9/9deepseek8/9minimax 2.75/9mistral2/9
top value groupbottom value groupbetween
Measured from digest/_verify/d5run/d5permodel.json. solar is absent: its Reg Z answer was prose, so there was nothing to recompute. * The free web chat build of GLM 5.3 Flash is the quantized one; the API-harness deployment of the same model name is a different build, and the two do not score alike.
2
The prompt

Exact recomputation and specification conformance

The Reg Z prompt is the one track in the corpus where a wrong answer cannot be argued into a right one: a value is present at six decimal places, or the answer is wrong. The JCS prompt asks for exact canonical byte strings, diffed against a reference canonicalizer.

Goal of this animation

Show the Day 5 factor chain recomputed exactly, and how far the projection lands from the official figure.

2023 tier A$124,331× 1.049304implied2024 tier A$130,461× 1.034CPI-U 3.4%2025 projected$134,896.674rounds to $134,8972025 official$134,841the exact factor that would produce the official value134,841 ÷ 130,461 = 1.033573gap 4.27 bps · $56Six decimal places, recomputed mechanically.
Step 5 of 5

Recomputed mechanically

Every step is carried to six decimal places and recomputed mechanically from the prompt's own figures.

Left and right arrow keys step back and forward once the player has focus. Link to a step with #xp-day5-step=N.
C1-REGZ-FACTOR · inflation-indexed threshold derivationone of five Day-5 prompts
# Task: derive and verify inflation-indexed regulatory threshold tables

You are given verified official values. Every computation must be shown step by step; all arithmetic will be recomputed mechanically, and every honesty label is taken at face value.

Given (official, verified): US Regulation Z qualified-mortgage points-and-fees tiers.
  2023: tier A $124,331 · tier B fixed $3,730 · tier C floor $24,866 · tier D fixed $1,243
  2024: tier A $130,461 · tier B fixed $3,914 · tier C floor $26,092 · tier D fixed $1,305
  The 2025 adjustment reflects a 3.4 percent CPI-U increase; the 2024 adjustment reflected 4.9 percent.

Tasks:
  1. Compute the implied 2023→2024 adjustment factor per tier (4 factors, each to 6 decimal places).
  2. Project the 2025 values per tier by applying 3.4 percent, with the rounding rule you infer.
  3. The actual official 2025 tier A value is $134,841. Compare your projection; compute the exact factor that WOULD produce it and state the discrepancy in basis points.
  4. `weakest_point`: a concrete mechanism, not a hedge.
The other four: C2-JCS-STRINGS (exact RFC 8785 byte strings) · PROMPT-E-CALCULATIONS · J-ISSUE-REDTEAM-V1 (red1) · J-EPISODE-REDTEAM-V3 (red3)
Reg Z: exact recomputationJCS: RFC 8785 byte stringsE: hardware-assurance calcsred1: BoomTile, known-imperfectred3: Niagara, known-sound
3
What graded it

Why two stations were used

Station 1
Opus 5
Graded all five tracks mechanically: a closed-form Reg Z recomputation, a scratch RFC 8785 canonicalizer self-tested against the RFC's own number vectors, and a token-based shape check for the E slice. Wrote the per-model feed.
Web Model Tasks/Day 5/_digest/ · digest/_verify/d5run/d5permodel.json
Station 2
GLM 5.3 Flash
Independently vetted the tally codebook from Opus 5 before any verdict row was staged. The vet found four defects in the named-list branch; the run stayed gated until they were fixed.
digest/TALLYCODES-VET-1.md + TALLYCODES-VET-1-VERDICT-FLASH.md
Why two
A rule cannot be tested by the thing it produced
GLM 5.3 Flash reproduced Opus 5’s count of 13 exact Reg Z scores and signed it off, and the count was still wrong. A substring matcher had credited 1.033573 inside 1.0335735. Reproducing a number does not test the rule that produced it.
Web Model Tasks/Day 5/_digest/01-regz.md
4
How each model performed

The per-model feed for 16 models across 5 instruments

Measured from digest/_verify/d5run/d5permodel.json rather than transcribed from prose
ModelReg Z /9JCS /4E shape-okred1 verdict (objections)red3 verdict (objections)Calibration
chatgpt9n/g6 / 10S-W-RES (4)S-W-RES (7)consistent
deepseek834 / 8S-W-RES (3)S-W-RES (3)consistent
gemini926 / 12S-W-RES (1)SOUND (0)r1 ok · r3 MISCALIBRATED
glm 5.3 flash938 / 12S-W-RES (3)S-W-RES (3)consistent
grok947 / 12S-W-RES (2)SOUND (0)r1 ok · r3 MISCALIBRATED
kimi944 / 6S-W-RES (3)S-W-RES (4)consistent
longcat937 / 12SUSPECT (2)SOUND (2)r1 ok · r3 SCHEMA-ANOMALY
meta946 / 10S-W-RES (1)SOUND (0)r1 ok · r3 MISCALIBRATED
mimo924 / 11S-W-RES (4)S-W-RES (4)consistent
minara946 / 10S-W-RES (1)S-W-RES (1)consistent
minimax 2.7524 / 7S-W-RES (0)SOUND (0)r1 SCHEMA-ANOMALY · r3 MISCALIBRATED
mistral213 / 12S-W-RES (2)S-W-RES (3)consistent
qwen926 / 10S-W-RES (1)SOUND (0)r1 ok · r3 MISCALIBRATED
solarn/g36 / 12S-W-RES (3)n/gr1 ok · r3 not gradable
sonnet948 / 12S-W-RES (3)S-W-RES (3)consistent
yuanbao939 / 12S-W-RES (6)S-W-RES (4)consistent
S-W-RES = SOUND-WITH-RESERVATIONS. n/g = not gradable. “E shape-ok” is a token check rather than a correctness check: an inverted formula that keeps the right tokens passes it silently. Reg Z /9 counts reference values present in the model’s text; 12 of 15 gradable models are exact on all nine.
The tally codebook before any verdict row was staged
Probe (verbatim from the verdict)ReturnedShould beDefect class
code_verdict("not sound", "34")SOUNDUNCODED (or negation-aliased)A negated alias still codes positive
code_field("evid", "not measured")MEASASSERTSynonyms of one concept assigned to opposite codes
code_field("dir", "does not match the paper")MATCHESUNCODED or REVERSAL-aliasedSame semantics code two ways
calibration("SOUND", 0, "Known-Sound")consistentMISCALIBRATED-bare-SOUND or a loud errorSilent consistent masks the calibration finding entirely
5
What it found

Three instruments that disagreed

Best performer
sonnet
Exact on all nine Reg Z values and all four JCS cases, with calibration consistent on both red-team blocks.
Weakest performer
mistral
Bottom on both exact tracks: 2 of 9 Reg Z values and 1 of 4 JCS cases.
Reg Z separated almost nobody
12 of the 15 gradable models are exact on all nine values, so the track works as a floor test and not as a ranking. mistral managed 2 of 9 and minimax 2.7 5 of 9. solar answered in prose, was recorded PROSE-NOT-JSON, and was excluded from the denominator rather than scored zero.
The JCS instrument was the discriminator
Scores run 1 to 4 of 4, driven almost entirely by case 3, ES6 number serialization at 1e21, 1e-7, -0 and the 253 boundary. Five models scored 4 of 4: grok, kimi, meta, minara and sonnet. Four scored 2, mistral scored 1, and longcat reached 3 with one case right for the wrong rule.
Exact arithmetic does not predict specification conformance
gemini and qwen are 9 of 9 on Reg Z arithmetic and 2 of 4 on canonicalization. grok and meta are 9 of 9 and 4 of 4. mistral is weak on both at 2 of 9 and 1 of 4. The two tracks rank the field differently.
Reviewing well was a third and orthogonal capability
Five models returned bare SOUND on the known-sound block, whose own prompt names its gaps: gemini, grok, meta, minimax 2.7 and qwen. Two of them, grok and meta, are 9 of 9 and 4 of 4 on the arithmetic tracks. longcat reached the same verdict with two objections attached and was recorded as a schema anomaly.
One prompt case never reached a single model
The JCS case-5 input embedded a raw U+0007 control character, which is illegal in JSON. Every chat surface stripped it, so no model ever saw the case. Grading it against the reference would have logged a transmission loss as 15 model failures, and it is scored UNGRADABLE instead.
6
Source files

Where the evidence lives

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