| Week | Opening | Receivables | Payables | Shocks | Closing |
|---|
- 13-week cash flow horizon is the UK FCA standard for assessing near-term liquidity stress for regulated firms, and widely adopted by lenders for SME monitoring. Source: FCA SS2/19 Liquidity Standards.
- Revenue stress shocks (−20%, −40%) are based on scenarios used in the PRA/Bank of England SME lending stress tests 2024 and British Business Bank SME Finance Monitor.
- Payment delay shock (+15/+30 days) reflects industry-average debtor deterioration during a mild/moderate economic downturn. Source: Atradius Payment Practices Barometer 2024.
- Cross-reference: use T240 Working Capital Gap Calculator to size the funding gap that emerges from a sustained payment delay scenario, and T42 for a full cash flow stress laboratory.
13-week model — the industry-standard near-term liquidity horizon. Regulators, lenders, and administrators use 13 weeks to assess whether a business has sufficient cash reserves to withstand a trading shock.
Shocks modelled:
• Revenue −20% — mild recession / lost contract scenario
• Revenue −40% — severe downturn / market exit
• Payment delay +15d — debtors slow paying
• Payment delay +30d — debtor stress / dispute
• Unexpected capex — equipment failure / urgent repair
Red rows = closing cash below minimum buffer. This is your early warning signal — plan a liquidity response before reaching this point.
Cross-link: T240 Working Capital Calculator — size the funding gap and identify invoice finance, RBF, or overdraft options to bridge a stressed position.