Cat-17 · T196 · Credit Risk & Provisioning
v1.0

IFRS 9 Forward-Looking Macro Overlay Calculator

Compute ECL management overlay amounts by applying forward-looking macroeconomic scenarios to portfolio staging distributions. Supports base, adverse, and upside scenarios with sector weighting. Outputs overlay amounts per stage and management adjustment rationale template.

IFRS 9 ECL Credit Risk Zero PII Client-Side
Scope & reliance — 🔒 All inputs are processed locally in your browser. No data is transmitted. Do not enter real personal data — use synthetic or anonymised inputs only. Macro-factor sensitivities and PD multipliers in this tool are illustrative reference values derived from published academic and regulatory research. Actual ECL overlays require institution-specific model validation, auditor review, and senior management sign-off under IFRS 9 paragraphs 5.5.13–5.5.20. Verify all figures against your models and governance frameworks before use. Deterministic logic · no inference · zero PII · CC BY 4.0.
Portfolio Profile
Portfolio Staging Mix (must sum to 100%)
Stage 1 — Performing
12-month ECL. No significant increase in credit risk since origination.
Stage 2 — Underperforming
Lifetime ECL. SICR since origination but not credit-impaired.
Stage 3 — Credit-Impaired
Lifetime ECL. Objective evidence of credit impairment exists.
Macroeconomic Scenarios

Enter macro variable forecasts for each scenario. The tool applies published PD sensitivity elasticities to estimate overlay adjustments. All elasticities are reference values — replace with institution-specific model outputs where available.

Base Scenario
Central/consensus forecast. Typically assigned 55–60% probability weight.
Adverse Scenario
Downside scenario. Typically assigned 25–30% probability weight.
Upside Scenario
Optimistic scenario. Typically assigned 10–20% probability weight.