Tool 107 · Cat-10 · Personal Finance

Monte Carlo FIRE Trajectory Simulator

Run 1,000 market scenarios in your browser to find the true probability your retirement portfolio survives. Box-Muller parametric Monte Carlo — not a linear calculator. Zero API. Zero PII. No sign-up.

v1.0

Scope & reliance — 🔒 All inputs are processed locally in your browser. No data is transmitted. Do not enter real personal data — use synthetic or anonymised inputs only. Embedded rates, thresholds, and regulatory citations are static reference values that may age — verify against current primary sources and your own data before relying on any output for commercial, legal, or compliance decisions. Deterministic logic · no inference · zero PII · CC BY 4.0.

Educational Use Only This tool provides a self-assessment / educational framework for internal planning purposes only. It is not a regulatory audit, legal advice, or a substitute for a formal compliance review by a qualified advisor. Verify all interpretations against the official source text and applicable RTS/ITS/guidance published by the relevant authority.

Module 1 · Inputs

Current Portfolio Value ($)

Annual Contribution ($ — negative = drawdown)

Planned Retirement Spend ($/year, today's $)

Current Age

Target Retirement Age

Years to Model After Retirement

Inflation Assumption (%)

Social Security / Pension ($/year)

Asset Allocation (must sum to 100%)

Stocks70%

Bonds25%

Cash5%

Allocation must sum to 100%. Currently: 100%

Enable Sequence of Returns Risk overlay (worst 5-year crash in first 5 retirement years)

Median Final Portfolio

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10th Percentile (Downside)

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90th Percentile (Upside)

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Simulations Failed

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Probability Cone — Portfolio Value Over Retirement Horizon

Save & Share Scenario

Your Scenario Code

Load a Scenario Code

This code contains only numbers — no personal data. Text it to yourself, share with a financial advisor, or reload it on any device.