MiCA Stablecoin Reserve Stress Simulator

Monte Carlo simulation of stablecoin reserve portfolios under MiCA Article 36 redemption stress and asset price shocks — the core regulatory stress test required of Asset-Referenced Token (ART) and E-Money Token (EMT) issuers. 1,000 paths × 90-day horizon. Complements ART-06 (static attestation pre-check) with the full stochastic dimension. All computation runs locally — no reserve data leaves your browser.

AP2 Export Chains: ART-06 · SIM-01 · PTG-01 MiCA in force June 2024 MiCA Art. 36 · ESMA 1,000 paths · 90 days Zero PII

🔒 All inputs are processed locally in your browser. No data is transmitted. Do not enter real personal data — use synthetic or anonymised inputs only.

⚠ Simulation only — not supervisory stress testing. MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 Title III/IV is in force. ESMA regulatory technical standards (RTS) on reserve stress testing for ARTs are under development; Article 36 liquid-buffer thresholds used here are illustrative proxies pending final RTS. This tool is for pre-validation, scenario planning, and educational purposes. It is not a substitute for a formal supervisory stress test conducted under ESMA/NCА guidance. [¹ MiCA Art. 36, 45 · ² ESMA/2024/RTS · ³ FSB 2023 Stablecoin Framework]

Issuer & reserve configuration

Token type Determines Art. 36 liquid buffer threshold

Coverage ratio at t = 0 (%) Reserve assets ÷ outstanding liabilities. MiCA minimum = 100%

Liquid asset fraction (%) % of reserves in MiCA-eligible highly liquid assets (Art. 36)

Monte Carlo paths 200–2,000. Higher = more precise percentiles

Horizon (days) 30–180. MiCA standard = 90-day stress window

Redemption stress scenario

Bank Run

Exponential redemption surge peaking at day 20. Cumulative drain ~40% of liabilities. Most severe short-horizon scenario.

Gradual Drain

Linear redemption increase 0.3%→1.0% per day over the horizon. Cumulative drain ~50% over 90 days. Tests slow-bleed resilience.

Flash Crash

15% redemption spike on day 3, followed by 0.5%/day recovery drain. Tests liquidity buffer adequacy under sudden demand shock.

Asset price shock severity

Mild σ = 0.8% · peak drop 8%

Moderate σ = 1.5% · peak drop 20%

Severe σ = 2.5% · peak drop 35%

Fire-sale contagion parameters

Fire-sale haircut 20%

Art. 36 buffer trigger (%) 30%

Fire-sale haircut applied to illiquid asset disposals when liquid buffer falls below trigger. Art. 36 threshold: illustrative 30% for ART, 20% for EMT — final ESMA RTS pending. [¹ MiCA Art. 36(2)]

Stress Test Result

Coverage Ratio Fan Chart — P5 / P25 / P50 / P75 / P95

P5–P95 band

P25–P75 band

P50 median

100% floor (MiCA min)

Breach Probability Over Time — % paths with coverage < 100%

% of paths in breach at each day

20% breach threshold (elevated risk)

Article 36 Liquid Buffer & Fire-Sale Contagion

Export

Policy Mandate includes chain.parent_hashes — paste your ART-06 execution hash to anchor this stress result to the static attestation pre-check. Mandate type: liquidity_mandate · Tool: rca-02-mica-reserve-stress

Ask your agent

Copy this paragraph into Claude, OpenClaw, or any MCP-aware agent to run this exact tool, with this sample, and verify the artifact.

Run the AINumbers MCP tool `simulate_stablecoin_reserve`. Task: Monte Carlo MiCA reserve stress simulation.
Call it with arguments: {"policy_parameters":{"n_paths":50,"horizon_days":2,"seed":42}}
Verify before trusting: this node computes in your browser, so the MCP endpoint returns no execution_hash. Run the tool in the page, export the Policy Mandate artifact it produces, and call `verify_execution_hash` on mcp.ainumbers.co (https://mcp.ainumbers.co/mcp) with that artifact.
Return the ledger link https://ledger.ainumbers.co/ so a human can re-verify without contacting us.
PII rule: All inputs are processed locally in your browser. No data is transmitted. Do not enter real personal data — use synthetic or anonymised inputs only.
Open the tool with the sample prefilled: https://ainumbers.co/chaingraph/rca-02-mica-reserve-stress.html#p=v1.H4sIAAAAAAAA_wEpANb_eyJuX3BhdGhzIjo1MCwiaG9yaXpvbl9kYXlzIjoyLCJzZWVkIjo0Mn1aX4WEKQAAAA