{
  "tool_id": "art-263-score-cash-forecast-accuracy",
  "note": "Cash forecast accuracy: MAPE/bias/timing-vs-volume decomposition across T+1/7/30 horizons per AFP 2024 benchmarks.",
  "vectors": [
    {
      "name": "excellent_t1_accuracy_2pct_mape",
      "description": "Single T+1 observation: actual=1000000, forecast=1020000 → MAPE=2%, EXCELLENT tier, no timing bias.",
      "policy_parameters": {
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "actual_amount": 1000000,
            "forecast_amount": 1020000,
            "horizon_days": 1
          }
        ]
      },
      "output_payload": {
        "total_observations": 1,
        "skipped_zero_actual": 0,
        "overall_mape_pct": 2,
        "overall_bias_pct": 2,
        "overall_accuracy_tier": "EXCELLENT",
        "by_horizon": {
          "T+1": {
            "n": 1,
            "mape_pct": 2,
            "bias_pct": 2,
            "accuracy_tier": "EXCELLENT"
          }
        },
        "timing_bias_detected": false,
        "persistent_sign_periods": 0,
        "afp_benchmark_tiers": "EXCELLENT < 5% / GOOD 5-10% / ACCEPTABLE 10-20% / POOR >= 20% (AFP Cash Forecasting Survey 2024)",
        "table_version": "AFP-CASH-FORECAST-KPI-2024",
        "table_source": "AFP Cash Forecasting Survey 2024; Gartner Treasury Analytics 2023; GTreasury TMS Benchmark 2024",
        "regulatory_basis": "AFP Cash Forecasting Survey 2024 MAPE benchmarks; Gartner Treasury Analytics 2023 T+1/T+7/T+30 horizon tiers. MAPE = mean(|actual-forecast|/|actual|)*100; bias = mean((forecast-actual)/|actual|)*100; persistent directional bias (>75% same-sign) flagged as systematic timing issue.",
        "pii_note": "ZERO PII: forecast amounts, actual amounts, and horizon metadata only. No account holder, cash-pool owner, or personal data enters this kernel.",
        "not_legal_advice": "Not financial or investment advice. Cash forecast accuracy scoring is for internal TMS benchmarking only."
      },
      "golden_hash": "ae4059aa72f47d4d8b7d2c51cc8fa7534defe7a8330c52e15f7903feec4eb307"
    },
    {
      "name": "poor_accuracy_systematic_over_forecast",
      "description": "3 observations all over-forecast by 50%/40%/30% across T+7 and T+30 → MAPE=40%, POOR, timing_bias_detected=true (100% positive).",
      "policy_parameters": {
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "actual_amount": 500000,
            "forecast_amount": 750000,
            "horizon_days": 3
          },
          {
            "actual_amount": 500000,
            "forecast_amount": 700000,
            "horizon_days": 7
          },
          {
            "actual_amount": 500000,
            "forecast_amount": 650000,
            "horizon_days": 30
          }
        ]
      },
      "output_payload": {
        "total_observations": 3,
        "skipped_zero_actual": 0,
        "overall_mape_pct": 40,
        "overall_bias_pct": 40,
        "overall_accuracy_tier": "POOR",
        "by_horizon": {
          "T+7": {
            "n": 2,
            "mape_pct": 45,
            "bias_pct": 45,
            "accuracy_tier": "POOR"
          },
          "T+30": {
            "n": 1,
            "mape_pct": 30,
            "bias_pct": 30,
            "accuracy_tier": "POOR"
          }
        },
        "timing_bias_detected": true,
        "persistent_sign_periods": 3,
        "afp_benchmark_tiers": "EXCELLENT < 5% / GOOD 5-10% / ACCEPTABLE 10-20% / POOR >= 20% (AFP Cash Forecasting Survey 2024)",
        "table_version": "AFP-CASH-FORECAST-KPI-2024",
        "table_source": "AFP Cash Forecasting Survey 2024; Gartner Treasury Analytics 2023; GTreasury TMS Benchmark 2024",
        "regulatory_basis": "AFP Cash Forecasting Survey 2024 MAPE benchmarks; Gartner Treasury Analytics 2023 T+1/T+7/T+30 horizon tiers. MAPE = mean(|actual-forecast|/|actual|)*100; bias = mean((forecast-actual)/|actual|)*100; persistent directional bias (>75% same-sign) flagged as systematic timing issue.",
        "pii_note": "ZERO PII: forecast amounts, actual amounts, and horizon metadata only. No account holder, cash-pool owner, or personal data enters this kernel.",
        "not_legal_advice": "Not financial or investment advice. Cash forecast accuracy scoring is for internal TMS benchmarking only."
      },
      "golden_hash": "3f3b6d82bcd6497f144ef629785507c3fa2cec5034625e9e1dbebf54a338f291"
    },
    {
      "name": "good_mixed_horizons_no_bias",
      "description": "2 observations: T+1 over by 6%, T+7 under by 5% → MAPE=5.5%, GOOD tier, no timing bias (insufficient obs for detection).",
      "policy_parameters": {
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "actual_amount": 1000000,
            "forecast_amount": 1060000,
            "horizon_days": 1
          },
          {
            "actual_amount": 1000000,
            "forecast_amount": 950000,
            "horizon_days": 7
          }
        ]
      },
      "output_payload": {
        "total_observations": 2,
        "skipped_zero_actual": 0,
        "overall_mape_pct": 5.5,
        "overall_bias_pct": 0.5,
        "overall_accuracy_tier": "GOOD",
        "by_horizon": {
          "T+1": {
            "n": 1,
            "mape_pct": 6,
            "bias_pct": 6,
            "accuracy_tier": "GOOD"
          },
          "T+7": {
            "n": 1,
            "mape_pct": 5,
            "bias_pct": -5,
            "accuracy_tier": "GOOD"
          }
        },
        "timing_bias_detected": false,
        "persistent_sign_periods": 0,
        "afp_benchmark_tiers": "EXCELLENT < 5% / GOOD 5-10% / ACCEPTABLE 10-20% / POOR >= 20% (AFP Cash Forecasting Survey 2024)",
        "table_version": "AFP-CASH-FORECAST-KPI-2024",
        "table_source": "AFP Cash Forecasting Survey 2024; Gartner Treasury Analytics 2023; GTreasury TMS Benchmark 2024",
        "regulatory_basis": "AFP Cash Forecasting Survey 2024 MAPE benchmarks; Gartner Treasury Analytics 2023 T+1/T+7/T+30 horizon tiers. MAPE = mean(|actual-forecast|/|actual|)*100; bias = mean((forecast-actual)/|actual|)*100; persistent directional bias (>75% same-sign) flagged as systematic timing issue.",
        "pii_note": "ZERO PII: forecast amounts, actual amounts, and horizon metadata only. No account holder, cash-pool owner, or personal data enters this kernel.",
        "not_legal_advice": "Not financial or investment advice. Cash forecast accuracy scoring is for internal TMS benchmarking only."
      },
      "golden_hash": "c4d0981bb72561176d25f097232148881fae417fcdad45a14bf31965519cad0f"
    }
  ]
}