{
  "tool_id": "art-212-prediction-market-arbitrage",
  "note": "Polymarket/Kalshi arb positive, Kalshi/CME no-arb (negative spread), empty",
  "vectors": [
    {
      "name": "polymarket_kalshi_arb_positive",
      "policy_parameters": {
        "venue_a": "polymarket",
        "venue_b": "kalshi",
        "yes_price_a": 0.45,
        "no_price_b": 0.5,
        "payout": 1,
        "stake_total": 1000
      },
      "output_payload": {
        "venue_a": "polymarket",
        "venue_b": "kalshi",
        "yes_price_a": 0.45,
        "no_price_b": 0.5,
        "payout": 1,
        "gross_spread": 0.05,
        "gross_spread_pct": 5,
        "arb_exists": true,
        "stake_total": 1000,
        "k_contracts": 1052.6316,
        "capital_deployed": 1000,
        "gross_profit": 52.63,
        "fee_a": 0,
        "fee_b": 18.43,
        "total_fees": 18.43,
        "net_profit": 34.2,
        "net_edge_pct": 3.42,
        "min_spread_to_break_even": 0.0175,
        "implied_prob_yes_a": 0.45,
        "implied_prob_yes_b": 0.5,
        "consensus_gap": 0.05,
        "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Arb opportunities are transient and may disappear before execution. Verify current prices and fees with each venue. For informational purposes only."
      },
      "golden_hash": "e96f1ba03b5e21f7756fcfdad41f2003ff47e89cd971cd303c7be615c48e2f4d"
    },
    {
      "name": "kalshi_cme_no_arb",
      "policy_parameters": {
        "venue_a": "kalshi",
        "venue_b": "cme_event",
        "yes_price_a": 0.52,
        "no_price_b": 0.5,
        "payout": 1,
        "stake_total": 500
      },
      "output_payload": {
        "venue_a": "kalshi",
        "venue_b": "cme_event",
        "yes_price_a": 0.52,
        "no_price_b": 0.5,
        "payout": 1,
        "gross_spread": -0.02,
        "gross_spread_pct": -2,
        "arb_exists": false,
        "stake_total": 500,
        "k_contracts": 490.1961,
        "capital_deployed": 500,
        "gross_profit": -9.8,
        "fee_a": 8.57,
        "fee_b": 245.1,
        "total_fees": 253.67,
        "net_profit": -263.47,
        "net_edge_pct": -52.694,
        "min_spread_to_break_even": 0.5175,
        "implied_prob_yes_a": 0.52,
        "implied_prob_yes_b": 0.5,
        "consensus_gap": 0.02,
        "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Arb opportunities are transient and may disappear before execution. Verify current prices and fees with each venue. For informational purposes only."
      },
      "golden_hash": "df92bead283f6cb56c8f4a29c9eb0488ba175b0eae913bf17bc057223acf46e3"
    },
    {
      "name": "empty_input",
      "policy_parameters": {},
      "output_payload": {
        "venue_a": "polymarket",
        "venue_b": "kalshi",
        "yes_price_a": 0.45,
        "no_price_b": 0.5,
        "payout": 1,
        "gross_spread": 0.05,
        "gross_spread_pct": 5,
        "arb_exists": true,
        "stake_total": 1000,
        "k_contracts": 1052.6316,
        "capital_deployed": 1000,
        "gross_profit": 52.63,
        "fee_a": 0,
        "fee_b": 18.43,
        "total_fees": 18.43,
        "net_profit": 34.2,
        "net_edge_pct": 3.42,
        "min_spread_to_break_even": 0.0175,
        "implied_prob_yes_a": 0.45,
        "implied_prob_yes_b": 0.5,
        "consensus_gap": 0.05,
        "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Arb opportunities are transient and may disappear before execution. Verify current prices and fees with each venue. For informational purposes only."
      },
      "golden_hash": "ac66ccd86df97256b8f4961be64edab5f5e796f51db7d64a06fb9957b9e33b7e"
    }
  ]
}