{
  "tool_id": "art-211-prediction-market-analyzer",
  "note": "Binary PnL (Polymarket, won), Kalshi binary with Kelly + Brier, CME scalar long",
  "vectors": [
    {
      "name": "polymarket_binary_won",
      "policy_parameters": {
        "mode": "binary",
        "venue": "polymarket",
        "side": "yes",
        "entry_price": 0.6,
        "n_contracts": 100,
        "payout": 1,
        "won": 1
      },
      "output_payload": {
        "mode": "binary",
        "venue": "polymarket",
        "side": "yes",
        "entry_price": 0.6,
        "n_contracts": 100,
        "payout": 1,
        "won": 1,
        "pnl": 40,
        "fee_paid": 0,
        "implied_probability": 0.6,
        "break_even_probability": 0.6,
        "no_vig_fair_value": 0.6,
        "expected_value": null,
        "kelly_fraction": null,
        "half_kelly_stake": null,
        "odds_decimal": 1.6667,
        "odds_american": -150,
        "odds_fractional": "2/3",
        "brier_score": null,
        "log_score": null,
        "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Verify all fee schedules with the venue before trading."
      },
      "golden_hash": "5d27eab7085490a4fb76c970c7dc63d69699d3cd6930ded2c9fe9199ae969b7c"
    },
    {
      "name": "kalshi_binary_lost_kelly_brier",
      "policy_parameters": {
        "mode": "binary",
        "venue": "kalshi",
        "side": "yes",
        "entry_price": 0.55,
        "n_contracts": 50,
        "payout": 1,
        "won": 0,
        "user_probability": 0.65,
        "bankroll": 5000,
        "forecast_prob": 0.65,
        "outcome": 0
      },
      "output_payload": {
        "mode": "binary",
        "venue": "kalshi",
        "side": "yes",
        "entry_price": 0.55,
        "n_contracts": 50,
        "payout": 1,
        "won": 0,
        "pnl": -28.37,
        "fee_paid": 0.87,
        "implied_probability": 0.55,
        "break_even_probability": 0.5674,
        "no_vig_fair_value": 0.55,
        "expected_value": 4.13,
        "kelly_fraction": 0.2222,
        "half_kelly_stake": 555.5,
        "odds_decimal": 1.8182,
        "odds_american": -122,
        "odds_fractional": "9/11",
        "brier_score": 0.4225,
        "log_score": -1.049822,
        "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Verify all fee schedules with the venue before trading."
      },
      "golden_hash": "31bb7f1be3aa2da73cfc4bec0694e2926be271344f361cb637ebb9d3e73a2ecc"
    },
    {
      "name": "cme_scalar_long",
      "policy_parameters": {
        "mode": "scalar",
        "venue": "cme_event",
        "side": "long",
        "strike": 4.5,
        "settlement_value": 5.2,
        "unit_value": 200,
        "n_contracts": 3,
        "contract_min": 0,
        "contract_max": 10
      },
      "output_payload": {
        "mode": "scalar",
        "venue": "cme_event",
        "side": "long",
        "strike": 4.5,
        "settlement_value": 5.2,
        "settlement_clamped": 5.2,
        "settlement_delta": 0.7,
        "unit_value": 200,
        "n_contracts": 3,
        "pnl": 420,
        "settlement_in_range": true,
        "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. For informational purposes only."
      },
      "golden_hash": "c348299b4444d89b6c7acbda78ac9d1242d9ca4c5778f2cb971fe2ddb24c3896"
    },
    {
      "name": "empty_input",
      "policy_parameters": {},
      "output_payload": {
        "mode": "binary",
        "venue": "polymarket",
        "side": "yes",
        "entry_price": 0.5,
        "n_contracts": 1,
        "payout": 1,
        "won": 0,
        "pnl": -0.5,
        "fee_paid": 0,
        "implied_probability": 0.5,
        "break_even_probability": 0.5,
        "no_vig_fair_value": 0.5,
        "expected_value": null,
        "kelly_fraction": null,
        "half_kelly_stake": null,
        "odds_decimal": 2,
        "odds_american": 100,
        "odds_fractional": "1/1",
        "brier_score": null,
        "log_score": null,
        "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Verify all fee schedules with the venue before trading."
      },
      "golden_hash": "9aab8083cea849ac2bf2d148e15b6e6dc6784b4016572a7fca15e374bc387f4a"
    }
  ]
}